青藏高原东南缘现今大震活动特征及其趋势:活动构造体系角度的初步分析结果
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中国地质调查局地质调查项目:青藏高原东南缘重要活动断裂厘定与活动构造体系综合研究(1212011120163);西南地区活动构造域应力场模拟(1212010911049);基本科研业务费项目:成果集成与战略研究(2012-2013)(项目批准号:DZLXJK201202);共同资助成果。


The Seismic Hazard Assessment around South-East Area of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau:A Preliminary Results from Active Tectonics System Analysis
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    摘要:

    青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系是地质力学中最为典型的反“S”状(或“Z”状)旋扭构造体系,其中各构造部位之间在运动学与动力学方面具有密切的成生联系,并且现今活动性非常显著,属于典型的活动构造体系。梳理分析该构造体系中M≥68历史大地震的活动状况发现,与其运动学方面的整体性与协调性相对应,其头部、中部与尾部之间的大地震活动具有明显的联动效应,即当头部与尾部发生大地震序列后不久(大致为几个月、几年或十几年尺度),中部(尤其是我国的川滇强震区)随即也会发生大地震。但在1997年以来的最近一次大地震活动序列中,构成该构造体系中段的川滇地区却出现了长达15年之久的“异常平静”状态,这无疑意味着该区未来发生大地震的危险性将显著增加。进一步结合西南地区川滇弧形旋扭活动构造体系研究的最新成果,依据活动断裂带上大地震危险性判定的离逝时间、地震空区和强震连锁反应等“三准则”,初步认为该区当前存在至少9个比较明显的大地震危险区带,包括:鲜水河 小江断裂带上的安宁河段、巧家段和南端的澄江 建水段,理塘 大理 瑞丽弧形活动构造带上的畹町断裂带和南汀河断裂带、滇西北裂陷带中的鹤庆-松桂断陷盆地区和程海 宾川断裂带期纳 宾川段,澜沧 景洪断裂带的景洪段,以及近南北向的保山断陷盆地和元谋断陷盆地。这一研究结果将有助于进一步全面认识我国西南地区当前的大地震形势,进而科学部署开展地震地质与地震预报预测工作。

    Abstract:

    There is a mega tectonic system in south Asia, which is called South Asia “Z” shaped tectonic system in Lee’s geomechanics theory. Its range mainly involves Qinghai Tibet, Yunnan, Myanmar and Indonesia. The present activity of the tectonic system is very prominent and controls many large earthquakes (M≥ 6 8 ) distribution, so it is a typical active tectonic system. Based on recent studying on active faults and earthquake geology, we analyzed in detail the present activity and large earthquake events since 1320 A.D. along the active tectonic system. The studying results show that the consistency aspects of kinematics and large earthquakes chain reaction or domino effect resulted from active fault interaction are all very obvious along different structure segments of the mega tectonic system. The interaction effect of large earthquakes is that the middle segment occurred immediately large earthquake events soon after (usually about few months or few years, and sometimes more than ten years) some large earthquakes occurred along the head of tail of the South Asia “Z” shaped mega tectonic system. But during the latest large earthquake cycle since 1997 A.D., the Sichuan Yunnan constituting the middle segment of the tectonic system, which is a typical active province of large historical earthquakes in west south China, appeared aseismic period of large earthquakes sustainable more than ten years after many large earthquakes occurred along the head and tail segment of the tectonic system. The long large earthquakes quiescence occurred in middle segment is obviously incompatible with the interaction effect of large earthquakes of the South Asia “Z” shaped tectonic system, and implies that there is very high large earthquake hazard in the near future at the middle structure segment. Based on the newest active faults studying on Sichuan Yunnan arc rotation shearing active tectonic system combining with three fundamental criterions of seismic hazard assessment, including elapsed time after large earthquake events, seismic gap and chain reaction or domino effect of large earthquake events, we suggest that there are 9 large earthquake high hazard areas or belts in the Sichuan Yunnan arc active tectonic system, including: Anninghe segment of the Xianshuihe Xiaojiang fault zone, Qiaojia segment of the Xianshuihe Xiaojiang fault zone, the southern section of the Xiaojiang fault of the Xianshuihe Xiaojiang fault zone, Heqing Songgui graben basin and the Chenghai Binchuan fault in rifting zone of the west north Yunnan, the seismic gaps along the Wanding fault and Nantinghe fault, the east south segment of the Lancang Jinghong fault zone, Yuanmou graben and Baoshan graben. The new seismic hazard assessment results are helpful to understand present large earthquake trend on the Shichuan Yunan active tectonic system of west south China.

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吴中海,赵根模,龙长兴,周春景,范桃园.2014.青藏高原东南缘现今大震活动特征及其趋势:活动构造体系角度的初步分析结果[J].地质学报,88(8):1401-1416.
wu zhong hai.2014. The Seismic Hazard Assessment around South-East Area of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau:A Preliminary Results from Active Tectonics System Analysis[J]. Acta Geologica Sinica,88(8):1401-1416.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-05-09
  • 最后修改日期:2014-02-07
  • 录用日期:2014-09-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2014-10-10