Food security is a fundamental aspect of national security. Potash fertilizer, one of the three major fertilizers, is often referred to as the “food of food.” Potash, as a primary raw material for producing potash fertilizer, is essential for ensuring national food security. China, the world’s largest potash consumer, faces challenges such as limited reserves and poor resource endowment. The growing demand for potash has resulted in an external dependency exceeding 40% for many years. Therefore, in the context of a complex and volatile international landscape, ensuring the secure supply of potash resources has become an urgent issue that need to be addressed. This paper comprehensively analyzes the deposit types, geological characteristics, resource reserves, current production, and consumption status of China’s potash resources. It utilizes the S- curve model, and the ARIMA model to forecast potash supply and demand trends, and proposes some policy recommendations. The study reveals that:① China’s potash resources are primarily found in Quaternary salt lake type potash deposit, with 98% of the retained reserves concentrated in Qinghai and Xinjiang. The grade of these reserves is relatively low, with many co- associated mineral resources; ② The exploitation and utilization of potash resources in China are mainly focused on salt lake brine- type deposits. The production chain for potash fertilizer is lengthy and influenced by numerous factors, including geological conditions, resource endowment, climate, and engineering technology, thereby limiting the growth potential and space for expanding domestic potash supply. It is projected that China’s annual potash production (K2O) will range between 5- 6 million tons from 2024 to 2035; ③ China’s potash consumption is expected to be characterized by sustained high demand from 2024 to 2035. According to the forecast, the demand will initially increase, reaching a peak of 13.5 million tons in 2025, before gradually declining to 10.2 million tons by 2035; ④ Although the reliance on imported potash has decreased from 90% in 2002 to 49% in 2023, the annual supply- demand gap is anticipated to exceed 4 million tons in China. From 2024 to 2035, the external dependency is expected to remain around 50%, with a long- term supply- demand gap. Hence, it is recommended to strengthen geological exploration for potash, achieve breakthroughs in mineral prospecting, and promote technological innovation to enhance resource utilization efficiency. Additionally, fully leveraging international potash resources and supporting enterprises in securing overseas potash resource rights are crucial strategies. The insights and recommendations presented in this paper provide valuable references for the formulation of China’s potash resource strategic planning and support for national potash resource policy.