Phosphate rock is an important chemical raw material and agricultural mineral resource, serving as a strategic mineral resource in China. Studying the supply-demand situation of phosphate resources and proposing corresponding countermeasures is of great significance for ensuring phosphate resource security and even national food security. China’s phosphate resources are characterized by abundant low-grade ores, scarce high-grade ores, numerous difficult-to-process ores, and few easily-processable ores. In recent years, China has maintained its position as the world’s largest producer of phosphate rock and the top consumer. In 2022, China’s phosphate reserves stood at 3. 69 Gt, ranking second globally.Methods:The authors employed statistical analysis methods to systematically summarize China’s phosphate resource reserve characteristics, production volumes, consumption levels, and price trends. A system dynamics model was also established to forecast China’s phosphate resource demand from 2022 to 2032. Results:The results indicate that demand will continue to grow moderately through 2032,the supply will shift from exceeding demand to falling short of demand in 2027. Over the past decade, China’s reserve-to-production ratio for phosphate has consistently remained below 40 a, reaching 35. 2 a in 2022-far below the global average-highlighting severe over exploitation of resources. Conclusions: Therefore, protecting phosphate resources requires immediate action. Recommendations include: increasing investment in high-grade phosphate exploration to enhance resource security; strengthening comprehensive utilization of medium-low grade ores and tailing to improve resource efficiency; and encouraging enterprises to “go global” through industrial layout optimization, establishing overseas phosphate supply bases to ensure sustainable resource utilization.